Population at Crossroads: An Analysis of Demographic Trends and Their Implications for National Policy in Contemporary Bhutan

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32674/a3z3kr75

Abstract

Bhutan is undergoing a significant demographic transition, characterised by declining fertility rates, accelerated urbanisation, and rising outmigration. This research study examines the policy implications of these demographic shifts within the framework of Gross National Happiness (GNH) governance. The research study used a mixed-method framework and hence a mixed-method methodology, combining online quantitative methodology and online document analysis of policy papers, statistical reports, and GNH-related publications.  The findings highlight critical misalignments between demographic realities and policy responses, notably in labour market shortages, youth aspirations, and elder care. Moreover, the study identifies institutional limitations in incorporating demographic evidence into governance mechanisms and highlights aspirational mobility as a significant driver of migration. By contextualising Bhutan’s experience within a global comparative framework, the research study contributes to the discourse on culturally responsive and adaptive policy innovation in emerging economies.

Author Biographies

  • Sonam Choki, Student at James Cook University Brisbane

    First Author 

  • Dr Sangeeta Rai, Academic supervisor

    Academic at the James Cook University, Brisbane 

References

Ahmed, S. K., Mohammed, R. A., Nashwan, A. J., Ibrahim, R. H., Abdalla, A. Q., M. Ameen, B. M., & Khdhir, R. M. (2025). Using thematic analysis in qualitative research. Journal of Medicine, Surgery, and Public Health, 6, Article 100198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.glmedi.2025.100198

Alaref, J., Bartl, E., Ndip, A. E., Leite, P., Martinoty, L., & Viollaz, M. (2024). Bhutan Labor Market Assessment Report. Washington, DC, USA: World Bank.

Aramo Immonen, H. (2011). Mixed methods research design. In Information Systems, E learning, and Knowledge Management Research (pp. 32–43), Communications in Computer and Information Science (Vol. 278). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-35879-1_5

Asia News Network. (2024, April 19). Bhutan sees marked drop-in unemployment rates, particularly among youth. Asia News Network. https://asianews.network/bhutan-sees-marked-drop-in-unemployment-rates-particularly-among-youth/

Asia News Network. (2025, May 29). Bhutan’s emigration dilemma: Will they ever return? Asia News Network. https://asianews.network/bhutans-emigration-dilemma-will-they-ever-return/

Bhandari, P. (2023, June 21). Descriptive statistics: Definitions, types, examples. Scribbr. https://www.scribbr.com/statistics/descriptive-statistics/

Bhutan to Australia: The student exodus changing a nation. (n.d.). Vocal Media. Retrieved July 15, 2025, from https://vocal.media/education/bhutan-to-australia-the-student-exodus-changing-a-nation-o5q110a42

Bowen, G. A. (2009). Document analysis as a qualitative research method. Qualitative Research Journal, 9(2), 27–40. https://doi.org/10.3316/QRJ0902027

Braun, V., & Clarke, V. (2006). Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 3(2), 77–101. https://doi.org/10.1191/1478088706qp063oa

Caldwell, J. C., Caldwell, B. K., Caldwell, P., McDonald, P. F., & Schindlmayr, T. (2006). Demographic transition theory. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4498-4

Campbell, C. (2025, January 16). Inside Bhutan’s $10 billion mindfulness city project. Time Magazine. https://time.com/7204652/gelephu-mindfulness-city-bhutan-economy/

Choden, K. (n.d.). Addressing the Gungtong crisis: A call for balanced development. Bhutan Today. https://bhutantoday.bt

Costello, R. A., Salehi, S., Ballen, C. J., & others. (2023). Pathways of opportunity in STEM: Comparative investigation of degree attainment across different demographic groups at a large research institution. International Journal of STEM Education, 10(46). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40594-023-00436-5

Creswell, J. W., & Poth, C. N. (2018). Qualitative inquiry & research design : choosing among five approaches (Fourth edition.). SAGE

Dema, C. (2025, July 12). Bhutan’s fertility rate: A future with more elderly and lesser working-age people. The Bhutanese. https://thebhutanese.bt/bhutans-fertility-rate-a-future-with-more-elderly-and-lesser-working-age-people/

Dorji,L., Jamtsho, C., Norbu, T., & Bhujel, G. D. (2017). Understanding the situation of elderly citizens in Bhutan (Monograph Series No. 10). National Statistics Bureau. https://www.nsb.gov.bt/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2022/02/Understanding-the-situation-of-elderly-citizens-in-Bhutan.pdf

Druk Journal. (2022). The nature of GNH will never change, but how we achieve GNH will. The Druk Journal, 8(2), 1–5. Retrieved from https://drukjournal.bt

Dixit, S., Poudyal, N. C., Silwal, T., Joshi, O., Bhandari, A., Pant, G., & Hodges, D. G. (2024). Perceived benefits, burdens and effectiveness of a buffer zone programme in improving protected area–people relationships. Environmental Conservation, 51(2), 141-151. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892924000018

Dorji, R., & Hosoe, N. (2025, April 7). Brain drain in Bhutan: Its impacts and countermeasures. Comparative Migration Studies, 13, Article 19. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-025-00439-x

Dorji, T., Dorji, N., Dorjee, S., Penjor, K., Lethro, P., Pongpirul, K., & Lucero-Prisno, D. E. (2024). Social, Economic, and Health Challenges in Responding to Aging Population in South Asia: An Experience from Bhutan. Journal of Population Ageing, 17(4), 823–833. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12062-024-09464-7

Dyson, T. (2010). Population and development: the demographic transition (1st ed., pp. xv–xv). NBN International. https://doi.org/10.5040/9781350221819

Dixit, S., Poudyal, N. C., Silwal, T., Joshi, O., Bhandari, A., Pant, G., & Hodges, D. G. (2024). Perceived benefits, burdens and effectiveness of a buffer zone programme in improving protected area–people relationships. Environmental Conservation, 51(2), 141-151. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892924000018

Gangopadhyay, J. (2023). Ageing, religion, and living arrangements in Bhutan. In Handbook of aging, health and public policy. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/9789811619144_2181

Ghalley, T. B. (2025, July 30). An ageing nation: Nearly 1 in 5 Bhutanese to be elderly by 2047. Bhutan Times. https://bhutantimes.bt/an-ageing-nation/

Gyamtso, D. C., & Seden, K. (2025). Perceptions of academics on the potential infusion of educating for Gross National Happiness with Biggs’ constructive alignment in Bhutanese higher education institutions. Bhutan Journal of Research and Development, 14(1). https://doi.org/10.17102/bjrd.rub.14.1.001

Jackson, W. (2024, February 2). Can Bhutan’s plans for a ‘mindfulness city’ convince its diaspora community to come home? ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-03/bhutan-mindfulness-city-gelephu-reverse-brain-drain/103410002

Jayasinghe, M., Selvanathan, S., & Selvanathan, E. A. (2025). Demographic dynamics of South Asia. In South Asian economic development in the era of global turbulence (3rd ed., p. 8). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781032716244

Jha, R. K. (2025). Comparative sustainability frameworks in planned urban development: Economic, environmental, and social integration in Neom, Nusantara, and Gelephu. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 65(8), 86-111. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6434473/v1

Kamei, M., Wangmo, T., Leibowicz, B. D., & Nishioka, S. (2021). Urbanization, carbon neutrality, and Gross National Happiness: Sustainable development pathways for Bhutan. Cities, 111, 102972. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102972

Kelly, M. M., Martin-Peters, T., & Farber, J. S. (2024). Secondary data analysis: Using existing data to answer new questions. Journal of Pediatric Health Care, 38(4), 615–618. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pedhc.2024.03.005

Khanal, K. N. (2024). Pattern of aging transition in Nepal: A new sociological perspective. Interdisciplinary Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 5(1), 67–76. https://doi.org/10.3126/ijmss.v5i1.62664

Kirk, D. (1996). Demographic Transition Theory. Population Studies, 50(3), 361–387. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000149536

Kuensel. (2024, July 27). Editorial: A policy for senior citizens. Bhutan’s demography is going through dramatic changes… [Status update]. Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/Kuensel/posts/editorial-

Lamsang,T. (2024, January 6). Remittance in 2023 reached record USD 124.04 mn due to 10 % incentive. The Bhutanese. Retrieved July 16, 2025, from https://thebhutanese.bt/remittance-in-2023-reached-record-usd-124-04-mn-due-to-10-incentive/

Lee, R. (2003). The demographic transition: Three centuries of fundamental change. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4), 167–190. https://doi.org/10.1257/089533003772034943

Lhamo, T., Schellekens, P., Zangmo, T., & UNDP. (n.d.). Bhutan in the World: Opportunities for progress. In The Druk Journal (Vol. 10, Issue 1). https://drukjournal.bt/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Bhutan-in-the-world.pdf

Masaki, K., & Tshering, J. (2021). Exploring the Origins of Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness. Journal of South Asian Development, 16(2), 273-292. https://doi.org/10.1177/09731741211039049 (Original work published 2021)

McGuinness, J. (2023, July 30). Top ten public policy lessons from Bhutan. McGuinness Institute. https://www.mcguinnessinstitute.org/project-ecologicalcorridorsnz/top-ten-public-policy-lessons-from-bhutan/

Meuleman, L. (2021). Public administration and governance for the SDGs: Navigating between change and stability. Sustainability, 13(11), 5914. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13115914

Milhorance, C., Bursztyn, M., & Sabourin, E. (2022). Analysing complex policy problems: A critical review of the literature. International Journal of Public Policy, 17(1/2), 126–150. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJPP.2022.124774

Ministry of Information and Communications. (2022). Bhutan communications and statistics report 2022. Royal Government of Bhutan. https://www.moic.gov.bt

Morgan, H. (2022). Conducting a qualitative document analysis. The qualitative report, 27(1), 64-77.

National Statistics Bureau. (2018). 2017 population and housing census of Bhutan: National report. Royal Government of Bhutan. Retrieved August 22, 2025, from https://www.nsb.gov.bt/publications/census-report/

National Statistics Bureau. (2018). Rural-Urban Migration and Urbanization in Bhutan (250 pp.). UNFPA Bhutan. https://bhutan.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/rural%20urban%20migration%20and%20urbanization.pdf

National Statistical Bureau. (2024). Labour Force Survey 2024. Royal Government of Bhutan. https://www.nsb.gov.bt/labour-force-survey-2024/

National Statistics Bureau. (2022). Population and housing census of Bhutan 2022. Royal Government of Bhutan. https://www.nsb.gov.bt

NSB. (2023). Bhutan Statistical Yearbook 2023. National Statistics Bureau, Royal Government of Bhutan. https://www.nsb.gov.bt/publications/statistical-yearbook/

Okuda, A. (2021). Digital transformation for a sustainable Bhutan. The Druk Journal. Retrieved July 16, 2025, from https://drukjournal.bt/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Digital-Transformation-for-a-Sustainable-Bhutan.pdf

Population Ageing in Bhutan: Current situation and Future Prospects, 2022. (2022). UNFPA Bhutan. https://bhutan.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/bhutan_ageing_report_-_2022_1_2.pdf

Pretorius, L. (2024). Demystifying research paradigms: navigating ontology, epistemology, and axiology in research. The Qualitative Report, 29(10), 2698-2715. https://doi.org/10.46743/2160-3715/2024.7632

Resnik, D. B. (2024, December 23). What is ethics in research & why is it important? National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS). https://www.niehs.nih.gov/research/resources/bioethics/whatis/index.cfm

Richardson, J. A. (2023). How does Gross National Happiness offer an integrated perspective linked with health, economics, and nature? Journal of Ayurveda and Integrative Medicine, 14(1), 100601. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaim.2022.100601

Rosenthal, R., & Rosnow, R. L. (2008). Essentials of behavioral research: Methods and data analysis (3rd ed.). Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill.

Sarcar, A. (2022). A demographer’s urban village: Testing demographic transition theory, Delhi 1950–1970. Journal of Historical Geography, 76, 56-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhg.2022.03.009

Scotland, J. (2012). Exploring the philosophical underpinnings of research: Relating ontology and epistemology to the methodology and methods of the scientific, interpretive, and critical research paradigms. English Language Teaching, 5(9), 9–16. https://doi.org/10.5539/elt.v5n9p9

Sharma, D. (2024). Aligning spirituality and development: The role of Buddhism in Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness. The Criterion: An International Journal in English, 15(3), 270–277. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12671463

Sharma, N. (2025, May 25). Is Bhutan headed for an economic crisis? A comprehensive analysis [Preprint]. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5268440

Stahl, L., & Chasan, A. (2024, November 17). Bhutan, after prioritizing happiness, now faces an existential crisis [News article]. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bhutan-emigration-crisis-60-minutes/

Sullivan, H. (2024, October 30). What happened to Bhutan’s “Kingdom of Happiness”? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/30/bhutan-what-happened-to-the-kingdom-of-happiness

Suto, S. (2022). Democracy and Gross National Happiness: Beyond the challenges. The Druk Journal, 8(1), 1–10. https://drukjournal.bt/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Shin-Suto.pdfx

The Economic Times TravelWorld. (2023, June 15). Bhutan hikes incentives on remittances to shore up FX reserves. The Economic Times. Retrieved July 16, 2025, from https://travel.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/destination/global/bhutan-hikes-incentives-on-remittances-to-shore-up-fx-reserves/101023972

Tobden, T., Ugyel, L., & Dorjee, T. (2023). Characteristics and determinants of international migration: The recent phenomenon of migration of Bhutanese to international destinations. Journal of Bhutan Studies, 49(Winter), 36–58. https://doi.org/10.62104/jbs.06

Tshering, G., Tenzin, K., Okanurak, K., Pattaraarchachai, J., & Viwatpanich, K. (2023). Quality of Life and Health Needs among Elderly aged 6079 years in Paro, Bhutan. Bhutan Health Journal, 9(1), 26–32. https://doi.org/10.47811/bhj.153

Turner, M., & Wangchuk, D. (2025). National Development Planning and Sustainability: The Case of Bhutan. Sustainability, 17(7), 3261. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17073261

Turney, S. (2024, February 10). Pearson correlation coefficient (r): Guide & examples. Scribbr. https://www.scribbr.com/statistics/pearson-correlation-coefficient/

Ugyel, L., Givel, M., & Chophel, D. (2024). Punctuating “happiness”: Punctuated equilibrium theory and the agenda‐setting of the Gross National Happiness (GNH) policy in Bhutan. Review of Policy Research, 41(3), 491-507. https://doi.org/10.1111/ropr.12559

United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) (2023). The Future of Work in the Context of Population Ageing in Asia and the Pacific. https://repository.unescap.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/10c3ab34-11cb-45e0-9b1f-2b111f975f74/content

UNFPA Bhutan. (2022, October 14). Population ageing in Bhutan: Current situation and future prospects, 2022. Thematic Report on Ageing. Retrieved from https://bhutan.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pubpdf/bhutan_ageing_report__2022_1_2.pdf

Ura, K., Alkire, S., Wangdi, K., & Zangmo, T. (2023). GNH Survey Report 2022. Centre for Bhutan and GNH Studies. https://www.bhutanstudies.org.bt/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2022-GNH-Survey-Report_compressed.pdf

Van, G. M. (2024). Entrepreneurship education for Gross National Happiness Bhutan. Entrepreneurship Education and Pedagogy, 7(2), 218-234. https://doi.org/10.1177/25151274231189445

Wangchuk, S. (2023). Gungtong: An exploration of abandoned houses in Bhutan and links to human-wildlife conflict. [Doctoral Thesis, Charles Sturt University]. Charles Sturt University. https://researchoutput.csu.edu.au/en/publications/gungtong-an-exploration-of-abandoned-houses-in-bhutan-and-links-t

Wangdi, P., & Boossabong, P. (2024). Towards an inclusive education policy for sustainability: Advancing the ‘educating for Gross National Happiness’ initiative, Bhutan. Sustainability, 16(13), 5446. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16135446

World Bank. (2020). World development report 2020: Trading for development in the age of global value chains. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1457-0

World Bank. (2023). Bhutan development update: Overcoming challenges, sustaining growth. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://documents.worldbank.org

World Happiness Report. (2025). World Happiness Report 2025. Wellbeing Research Centre, University of Oxford. Retrieved from https://www.worldhappiness.report

Published

2025-11-28

Issue

Section

STEM Education (regular)

How to Cite

Choki, S., Yonzen, S., & Rai, S. (2025). Population at Crossroads: An Analysis of Demographic Trends and Their Implications for National Policy in Contemporary Bhutan. American Journal of STEM Education. https://doi.org/10.32674/a3z3kr75